📊 Bear Market Indicators
Composite signals based on sector breadth, rotation, and energy divergence
Composite Risk Score
9.1
🟢 LOW RISK
0 = safest · 100 = most bearish
Sector Breadth
9/11
sectors above SMA 200
81.8%
🟢 HEALTHY
Sector Rotation
Defensive avg (XLP,XLU,XLV,XLRE)
+1.63%
Cyclical avg (XLK,XLY,XLF,XLI)
+10.16%
Energy (XLE)
+5.62%
Signal
🚀 RISK-ON
📖 Indicator Logic
Sector Breadth
% of the 11 SPDR sector ETFs trading above their SMA 200. Below 40% = bear market territory. Below 55% = caution zone.
% of the 11 SPDR sector ETFs trading above their SMA 200. Below 40% = bear market territory. Below 55% = caution zone.
Defensive Rotation
When staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), health care (XLV) outperform tech (XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY), money is moving to safety.
When staples (XLP), utilities (XLU), health care (XLV) outperform tech (XLK) and consumer discretionary (XLY), money is moving to safety.
Energy Divergence
XLE rising while growth sectors fall → commodity inflation hedge buying. Classic early/mid bear market setup.
XLE rising while growth sectors fall → commodity inflation hedge buying. Classic early/mid bear market setup.
Composite Risk Score
Weighted blend of breadth (50%), rotation delta (30%), energy divergence (20%). Not a trading signal – directional context only.
Weighted blend of breadth (50%), rotation delta (30%), energy divergence (20%). Not a trading signal – directional context only.
📉 Sector Strength Ranking
XLK
+28.22%
🟢
XLI
+10.90%
🟢
XLB
+7.77%
🟢
XLE
+5.62%
🟢
XLRE
+3.89%
🟢
XLP
+2.12%
🟢
XLF
+1.94%
🟢
XLU
+0.47%
🟢
XLV
+0.03%
🟢
XLY
-0.41%
🔴
XLC
-5.19%
🔴